Study: New coal projects outpace cancellations 3 to 1

Urgewald's latest data exposes a stark trajectory: three new coal projects were announced for every one cancelled in the past year. This is not momentum towards decarbonisation – it is active reversal. The ratio matters because it signals that policy pressure and investment divestment have failed to slow capital allocation to fossil fuels at scale. New coal plants lock in decades of emissions and stranded asset risk. They also undermine any credibility in net-zero commitments from financial institutions or governments still licensing extraction. The projects are typically backed by state development banks, multilateral lenders, or domestic capital in jurisdictions where climate policy remains weak or absent. For organisations tracking Scope 3 emissions – particularly those with supply chain exposure to energy-intensive sectors – this data is a reminder that transition risk is real and accelerating in the wrong direction. Coal retirements alone will not decarbonise energy systems if new capacity is added faster than old capacity closes. The question now is whether institutional investors, insurers, and development finance institutions will move from rhetorical net-zero targets to actual capital allocation discipline. If they don't, the gap between announced climate goals and real-world investment behaviour will widen further.