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The FAO wants to expand aquaculture production by 75% by 2040. A report reveals the arithmetic behind this: nearly half the world's wild fish catch would be ground into feed for farmed fish. It's a circular inefficiency that deserves scrutiny.
Experts argue the expansion threatens ecosystems and vulnerable communities dependent on wild fish stocks for food security. The concern isn't abstract. Small-scale fisheries – which employ 120 million people globally – face pressure as industrial aquaculture scales up, competing for the same resource base.
There's also a resource paradox here. Farmed fish require feed inputs that often come from the same wild stocks they're supposed to reduce pressure on. Using wild-caught forage fish to feed farmed carnivorous species (salmon, sea bass, shrimp) creates a net loss rather than a gain in protein available for human consumption.
The FAO framing emphasises aquaculture's potential to meet growing protein demand and support livelihoods. But the supply chain mechanics – who catches the forage fish, where farms are sited, how coastal communities are consulted – are underspecified in the headline ambitions.
This matters for procurement teams and impact investors. If aquaculture becomes a primary protein solution without addressing feed sourcing, certification standards, and local benefit-sharing, the sector risks scaling extraction rather than solutions. The question isn't whether to expand aquaculture. It's whether expansion happens with genuine ecosystem assessment and community voice embedded in the design.