Why land-use emissions fell a third this century

Land-use emissions have contracted by roughly a third since 2000, driven primarily by reduced deforestation rates and improved forest management in key regions. This reversal matters because land-use change – deforestation, peatland loss, forest degradation – accounts for a significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet receives less policy attention than energy sector decarbonisation.

The decline reflects several forces: Brazil's enforcement of deforestation controls, Indonesia's moratorium on new palm oil plantations, and shifts in commodity markets that reduced pressure on tropical forests. China's reforestation programmes have also contributed measurably to the trend.

But the numbers hide a complexity. While gross deforestation has slowed, forest quality has often degraded – selective logging, fragmentation, and conversion to plantations reduce carbon sequestration capacity without registering as headline "deforestation" in satellite data. Peatland destruction continues at concerning rates in Southeast Asia.

The data also reveals geographical inequality in progress. Protected forests in wealthy nations stabilised decades ago; tropical forest nations, which store the majority of global forest carbon, remain under acute pressure from commodity demand originating in high-consumption economies.

For organisations tracking scope 3 emissions – particularly those in agriculture, forestry, or supply chains dependent on land commodities – this trend is ambiguous. It suggests landscape-level progress is possible without comprehensive carbon pricing or net-zero mandates. Yet it also exposes how marginal policy shifts or market reversals can quickly destabilise gains. Does your supply chain traceability match the granularity of these forest dynamics?

Why land-use emissions have fallen by a third this century – in six charts

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